Will US-Russian relations improve?

The US-Russian relations are going on worsening. The prospects on the improvement are low from both sides. The weapon control is quickly getting ruined and Trump’s administration is likely to accept the expire of the START treaty. The open sky can be the subject of another agreement that US President Donald Trump would like to cancel.

The upcoming US presidential election can cause new allegations of Russian interference that can lead to new sanctions against Russia. Considering the event for six years, the best could be done in the near future is to prevent the direct military clash between the US and Russia. In a lack of a meaningful dialogue between the parties, communication channels between the supreme military command of the two countries remain the only instruments to maintain peace.

European-Russian relations leave much to be desired. The expectations of the breakthrough or at least significant progress in Donbass – the issues brought up after Ukraine’s presidential and parliamentarian elections of 2019 – had to be shattered. One left is the long-term freeze of conflict and giving Donbass the statue of quo.

The Minsk agreement, the fulfillment of which is the main condition to cancel the European sanctions against Russia, will remain unfulfilled. Kyiv does not want to consider the perseverance of Moscow regarding the special status for Donetsk and Lugansk as official.

The Russian-Ukrainian agreement of gas transit, due to which Moscow agreed to follow the judgment in favor of Kyiv, failed to prevent imposing the US sanction against companies participated in the pipeline project, the Nord Stream-2, through the Baltic Sea. The German governments call the US actions inappropriate bit the construction was temporarily suspended.

Russia claimed that it would be able to finish the construction on its own if no-one wants to help (more).

However, regardless of imposing sanctions, it became clear that the leading counties-members of the European Union are ready to cooperate with Moscow. The French President Emmanuel Macron invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to visit his spring residence to discuss the bilateral relations. The invitation appeared on the eve of the G7 meeting that caused the debates about the advantages of the renewal of Russia’s participation in the Group. France and Germany expressed their concern that Russia’s isolation would just push it to China that could have negative consequences for Europe.

The official delay in 2019 the START Treaty increases the probability of the new confrontation between the US and Russian in Europe. However, to Moscow’s surprise, such worrying prospects did not push the European governments to the actions on the prevention of new confrontation. The European calmness really confirmed the fact that European security is completely under NATO’s control.

As a result, the bad news is concluded in the fact the Moscow-Washington confrontation will go on; Russia’s treatment to the European government will range from pragmatic, as in the case of France, Germany, and Italy, to the extremely toxic with some Eastern European neighborhoods. The conflict in Donbass will hardly improve and be resolved soon. Crimea will remain the Russian part but would be admitted at the international stage. In the region of the Baltic Sea, there will not military actions but hostility from the two sides will not worsen. The Arctic will turn out to be the heart of the interests’ confrontation in the following years.


Vesna News — official website